¿Por qué Duque es mejor para la economía?

Ivan Duque candidato presidencial por el Centro Democrático

Fortalecer el mercado, el ahorro estatal y la estabilidad jurídica para las empresas son principios básicos para generar empleo

EditorialLR

A finales de 2013 salió al mercado un libro escrito por Nicholas Wapshott bajo el título: ‘Hayek versus Keynes: el debate del siglo’. El texto demuestra las diferencias teóricas de los dos influyentes economistas del siglo XX, al tiempo que explica con suficiencia conceptual cómo ese debate con raíces en la crisis bursátil de 1929, sigue vigente en pleno siglo XXI. Ambos economistas defienden sus visiones opuestas sobre cómo restaurar el equilibrio económico de los países para que el esquivo crecimiento regrese a los mercados. El inglés Keynes veía en el Estado, con su gasto público, el único motor real para reactivar la economía. Como antagonista, el austríaco Hayek era partidario de que la mano poderosa del Estado era parte del problema y que esa no era solución, al tiempo que proponía un Estado mínimo, poco participativo y rector de los mercados. El debate magistral siempre viene a colación en tiempos de elecciones presidenciales, como la de este domingo en Colombia, en la que se enfrentan dos modelos económicos bien diferenciados, que son competitivos, excluyentes y muy poco complementarios. Gustavo Petro representa algunas ideas keynesianas que le dan gran juego al Estado y a su intervencionismo, sumado a una peligrosa mezcla de justificaciones populistas, como son las expropiaciones, la compra de terrenos con títulos de deuda pública y los impuestos diferenciales, ideas que con el paso de los días se han maquillado para ganar electores de centro izquierda.

El texto de Wapshott ayuda a analizar el papel del Estado y la política en la gestión económica. Keynes basaba sus posturas en su texto, Las consecuencias económicas de la paz, donde criticaba las duras condiciones de ahorro para economías en crisis, mientras que Hayek sostenía que el incremento en el ahorro traería mayor inversión en bienes de producción. Para Hayek, el keynesianismo conduce a que el desequilibrio entre ahorro e inversión no puede ser corregido por las fuerzas del mercado, es decir que no hay mecanismos que rectifiquen disparidades. Una de las virtudes del libre mercado es su capacidad de autorregulación. Más tarde, el austriaco -en su libro El camino de servidumbre- escribe que toda intervención gubernamental es embrión de socialismo totalitario o fascismo. Quizá este sea el punto de quiebre entre los dos modelos económicos puestos en consideración de los colombianos este domingo: el de Petro, que deposita toda su arsenal de cambios económicos en manos del Estado o el de Iván Duque que cree más en fortalecer los mercados, defender las empresas privadas como generadoras de empleo formal, el ahorro estatal, la seguridad jurídica y las reformas estructurales tributarias y pensionales. Además de la reducción de impuestos para que la tasa impositiva del sector privado quede entre 27% o 28%, a niveles de la Ocde. La otra gran diferencia económica está en la austeridad como eje central para reducir gastos innecesarios del Estado.

Pero en lo que más se diferencian los candidatos y por lo que creemos que Duque es mejor para la economía -y como consecuencia para la gente- es en la férrea defensa de la red empresarial y bancaria forjada por casi un siglo y que ha hecho de la economía colombiana una de las más fuertes de la región, esta vez amenazada por ideas embrionarias de intervención estatal, que no son otra cosa distinta de un incipiente socialismo que ha fracasado en Cuba, en Venezuela y ahora en Nicaragua.

Fuente la Republica

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